BIN LADEN FROM A FACEBOOK 
Stefano Gatto
had already happened in 1989 when the international community and the analysts were unanimous in not seeing anything of what was to happen in the Communist bloc, since they consider them very solid. Instead, what was but a police order misinterpreted, to temporarily open the wall, was a disaster for a system clearly much more fragile than previously thought.
Even the revolutions in progress in the Arab countries had not been completely laid, even those who had assumed just a few weeks ago or those who persisted in thinking that democracy could be the solution even in the Muslim world was usually derided.
A powerful combination of 1) Wikileaks, 2) facebook / twitter, 3) frustration of young people disappointed by the alternative schemes is both their Islamic and 4) hard economic times, which put even more apparent hypocrisy and inefficiency of these schemes has led to policy changes in a few days for which it was thought it would take decades, not days.
no coincidence that the first schemes to fall were those that seemed more solid (Tunisia, Egypt), becoming the benchmark for their stability: the very regimes that have used this surface stability as an excuse for not carrying out those political openings, whole or in part, that inevitably bring breath of fresh air.
Ben Ali and Mubarak has always been right, even not to pursue political reforms true, because when you embark on that journey you know where you door to democracy, incompatible with their personal regime. They knew that, and then the timid reforms of the facade, made only superficially to please the international community (not guaranteed seats to the opposition Islamist in Tunisia, tolerance of a number of external candidates linked to the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt) or were withdrawn (boycott of all opposition to the latest Egyptian laws) or were used to co-opt the opposition less hazardous anesthetizing the power system (Tunisia).
For its part, the international community has always looked at from requiring a significant number of series of election observation missions, able to analyze in depth the validity of the process, or require more decisive steps towards a real democracy, always denied under the principle of non-interference related to fear of possible success of Islamic parties.
But the disconnect between people and systems has increasingly expanded, as evidenced by very low turnout at elections in force throughout the North African region (the citizens did not believe that type of election).
Finally, the coincidence of four factors that allowed the stillness became impetuous movement.
Wikileaks: it is often joked that Wikileaks would reveal little. True if there is only based on early reports in the press. As publications have followed, but it turned out that corruption and poor governance of these schemes was well known to all, including the international community. It was not just common knowledge: they know and have not done much to change this situation. Wikileaks was therefore a transparent effect, end the hypocrisy.
Social networks: it is the Arab public is often accused of excessive timidity, Pavor, liabilities. It's been true for a long time, but social networks have changed this reality. Allowing to overcome the ubiquitous presence of the repressive apparatus of the schemes.
had already happened with the green revolution in Iran, deleted as coming too soon and maybe in the wrong place, but that it was learned via Twitter in the face of the wall of silence, the Iranian media.
Facebook and Twitter, far from being the tool surface which is often strapped, are the backbone of the new political consensus, thanks to the extraordinary potential capacity of mobilization that has in it. Social networks have done the impossible, that political parties, trade unions, would never be able to do without that glue spontaneous.
If anything has characterized the square Muslim countries in recent years, for its liabilities to their governments but also for its ability to mobilize around the message of radical Islam, which made it even more difficult the inevitable progress towards democracy in the Islamic world.
This is another great lesson of the spring season out of North Africa: Al Qaeda and Osama have lost their potential to mobilize against the educated young people who do not pick up more to the proclamations of the bearded, but which require work, opportunities and democracy, as demonstrated by their satraps but also to a world a little 'disbelief in recent weeks.
The war on terror, Al Qaeda is losing not only because its ability to do harm by terrorist activity has decreased dramatically thanks to international cooperation, but also because young people no longer tremble at that battle cry. The Islamic fundamentalist recruits only the most secluded areas, tribal and out of modernity: the fact that Egypt go in another direction is the best news of recent days.
It was then also necessary that the political and social problems were added the economic problems that fuel the discontent: youth unemployment, endemic in all countries in the region due to poor economic dynamism, but in the prevailing system of paternalism and slippery of market mechanisms in contexts dominated by the families of the rais.
These structural problems came on top of rising food prices, a worldwide phenomenon that the schemes are struggling to control. Bread riots there have been several over the past decades: in this case, however, did not come alone, and it was not enough to impose political prices on bread and oil to calm the crowds.
is true, as reported by many from December onwards, not all cases are equal, in fact, the specific situation varies from country to country, and if Tunisia and Egypt were among their many similarities, he was not sure that the events Tunis could create a shock wave like the one we are witnessing.
For the moment, unable to contain the damage to those countries (Morocco, Algeria) in which, while not lacking elements common to those in Egypt and Tunisia, have been introduced over the years, significant reforms. In Morocco, Mohammed VI has a reputation as a monarch "open" that the regents did not have fallen.
And not remained static in recent years, while firmly holding the reins of power (the system "Makhzen). Even Algeria, although not free from political and economic problems, has always held elections, though in one case boycotted by the opposition. But Bouteflika is not devoid of political charisma, even if sometimes excessive, and is seen by Algerians as the one that ended the civil war.
In Algeria, the response to the international economic crisis was also a re-appropriation by the state of the economy that has brought some benefits.
This is not to say that Morocco and Algeria are not obliged to deepen economic reforms and policies needed to give vent to pent-up energies in those countries. However, we believe that there are reasons for thinking that those political systems can be kept, now speeding up reforms already hewn.
The Libyan regime is finished: dictatorship without contemplation or attempts graceful facade of the West, is a country which has always reserved a willingness exaggerated the "mad" Gaddafi has always allowed all, especially since he renounced the nuclear threat and express the support of international terrorism.
In exchange for those decisions, and oil, have tolerated the situations and attitudes Libyans who were never allowed any other country in the world.
Gaddafi, lost the ability to integrate the Arab world around him, has devoted the last ten - fifteen years to create a part of Africa, which has had disastrous consequences on democracy in Africa subshariana. The next fall of the "King of Kings of Africa" \u200b\u200b(small using the title on the continent) unfortunately will not be painless, but the veil of hypocrisy that has protected his regime for years has finally fallen. The disappearance of the regime
Jamariya is a 'good news for the world, even if you open complex scenarios, given the absolutism in which Gaddafi and his clan have maintained power for decades.
As the international community has reacted to these changes? If the West has good elements of analysis, not used them but never really successful, taken hostage by the catastrophic discourse of "wise men" on the southern shores of the Mediterranean. The triple mortgage of fear Islam, the dependence on hydrocarbons and the perennial threat of mass migration has hibernated the political fantasy Western countries, which have always moved on a schedule drawn by dictators South
not recognize the election results of 1992 in Algeria was the original sin, which dragged the country into a bloody civil war. The Palestinian elections won by Hamas and the difficulties in accepting this outcome inevitable, it is translated in the idea that democracy can not work in the Arab world because otherwise "the bad guys win."
This idea has so far blocked the region, but the other great lesson of these days is that Islamists are not the protagonists of the revolution, but the common people. Even the Arabs may want democracy, even though many costs to accept the idea.
The duty of the rest of the world is now to accommodate these revolutions, as we did in order to support the four countries that abruptly abandoned communism.
After the fall of the Berlin Wall, the same analysts who did not see anything coming to the conclusion that hastened the death of communism supposedly a true joy and rapid transition to capitalism. It was so, but as part of a process fraught with difficulties. In fact, the transition went better in those countries that could join the European Union (the enlargement is an extraordinary success of European foreign policy, often criticized for his supposed invisibility: Well, what that was a hit so big that it is now easy and unfair to give it for granted).
Why is integration in a political space as ambitious as the EU that has allowed those countries to properly complete the process of change. Sorry if it is little.
The transition has been rather poor in all those countries that remained outside the EU, and are part of the policy. In that case, the stimulus resulting from this partnership was not enough to enable them to complete that process, and much remains to be done.
Against the Islamic world today opens a very interesting little perspective: the people have shown the fallacy of the idea that Muslims "need a dictator": humanity evolves, and democracy is the next date for them. If in the case of communist countries had underestimated the difficulties, today we overestimate, judging it impossible to progress towards democracy in those nations. It is not true: it will be difficult, but we just use the experience of the nineties to trace a path of help.
The West's interest to help this wave expansion of democracy to consolidate.
will be long and difficult but necessary. The alternatives are the barbarism and chaos.
The international community has not been particularly effective in "state - building" and "democracy - building" in Afghanistan, Timor, the Balkans have not missed even blatant errors. But the case of the EU enlargement to the east provides a good example: when there is a clear medium-term perspective of where you are going, you can plot the right course. In the case of Eastern European countries joining the EU was, and it worked.
In the case of the Mediterranean countries is real democracy, without any preclusion for Muslim democracy, a fact which has already proved its worth in Turkey. Clear that there will be tensions and retreats, but hardly the heroes of Tahrir Square content with less. We must overcome our prejudices, to deepen the analysis and offer assistance where necessary. Possible that the timing of elections in Tunisia and Egypt are too short: in six months we do not build a network of parties and structures that can compete in elections or reform can be properly made laws on purpose to elect dictators.
would not be so severe that the time is stretched a bit '. But without losing sight of the final perspective, which can not be other that democracy.
The democratic revolution that Bush wanted to bring Iraq to the rest of the Arab world has failed miserably, a victim of its own hypocrisy end: what you wanted schemes were docile behind a veneer of democracy. But the approach also failed fundamentalist Osama bin Laden.
Europe has a card to play: not critichiamola for its timidity of these days it is too early for you to put forth a new set of foreign policy born from a few months and have not yet been tried and tested. However, by the way, no one else has done better, and someone has done worse, expressing opinions that are very low preference for a discreet silence.
The EU can do much to support democratization, when and how that will be needed, and to finally give substance to that union for the Mediterranean which has hitherto been held hostage by the bullies. That gradually leave the scene, leaving room for new scenarios. Where, in addition to the power of Facebook, you can also enter the "soft power" of Europe. It may seem a conclusion to the 'waiting for Godot, "but is perhaps the proof we needed.
The gap between Islam and the West can finally close again, as happened to that between capitalist and communist countries.
Stefano Gatto graduated at age 24: the last year in a kind of Erasmus in Barcelona, \u200b\u200bthen left to work in Spain 5 years in the private sector.
At 30 he married and he won the EU, moving to Brussels.
At the same time waiver to pursue a Ph.D. Columbia (it was admitted that same year).
Within the European Commission was willing to go to the sector's foreign policy: it was not possible immediately, the first place was to Eurostat, where, however, deals with cooperation with Latin America and Asia and traveled extensively in those areas. A
33 years passed definitively to the general foreign policy direction, towards Latin America. A 35
first place in Brazil (and economic policy advisor), at 39 the second in India (in Asia for deliberately not only become a specialist in Latin America, Commercial Counsellor, especially WTO). A 43
forced to return to Brussels (in two places abroad is the norm), where, having always occupied more than economic issues policy that seeks a place of political nature: in charge of EU election observation missions in the world, a theme that brought him to deal with some delicate scenes anywhere in the world (Afghanistan, Venezuela, East Timor, Angola, Cote d 'Ivoire etc.).
a very instructive.
known through a mutual friend, fond of football Siena, Juventus, State, and "small shareholder" of FC Barcelona. He writes about politics on
policy space, you can follow his actions.
